This is what I have gathered so far based on information from various sources.
Before reading through, please understand that this is WHAT I HAVE UNDERSTOOD about the process. I may or may not be right.
All profiles are divided into 4 buckets. (Nomenclature should be ignored, focus on the Idea)
B1 : Elites. Tier 1 College; Top Firms; Stellar GMAT => Call for Interviews. (I believe these were amongst the first ones who got called for Interviews)
B2 : Diversity candidates => Call for Interview (These were also called for interviews as part of the first wind)
B3 : Pool applicants; some spike of sort but overall a general candidate (ex : Indian IT Male); Kept aside to be decided upon later (These will be sorted based on some score and will soon get calls. Ratio will be hella skewed)
B4 : General pool applicant; No spike (Reject)
Now, I think they got through the first and second buckets and sent them the shortlist mails since they are no brainers for ISB. Most of them WILL convert.
Whoever’s left is in either of the other two buckets and stands a lesser chance of being shortlisted. Those shortlisted would again have a roughly 50 percent chance of converting.
I can’t say this enough, this is based on what I have understood and pieced together based on information from various sources(Consultants, Alums, Rejected candidates etc).
I hope this helps whoever is looking for clarity.